AEW Revolution 2021: Predictions & Analysis

Despite the fact that there’s been a lot of wrestling over the past month, it feels like it’s been ages since the last AEW PPV. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; it’s certainly better than the fatigue I get from WWE’s schedule some times, but there’s been a lot going on with their programming as of late, and it can be tough to keep track of it all sometimes with how spread out they are.

As for this card, it’s not looking like one of AEW’s best, but there’s still plenty I’m excited to see. Not to mention, it’s not like AEW have put on a crap PPV in their lifespan so far, so I don’t have really have much reason to worry.

Riho & Thunder Rosa vs Britt Baker & Reba
(Pre-Show)

I’ll talk a bit more about the current state of AEW’s women’s division a little later, but the short version is, it feels like it’s on the upswing.

There isn’t that much story going into this match, but that’s ok; it’s more about showcasing the talent they have on offer at the moment. I think all four of these women could be in title contention soon, so giving them the chance to do their thing on the PPV stage is a good decision, even if it is only on the pre-show. AEW has shown before that they’re willing to give pre-show matches a proper amount of time rather than artificially cutting them short, which will absolutely be to this match’s benefit.

The result could go either way, as both teams would benefit from having a credibility boost. Since it’s a pre-show match, I will go with the default and say the faces, Riho & Thunder Rosa will win.

Miro & Kip Sabian vs Best Friends

This feud has been a bit hit or miss week-to-week on Dynamite. The overall presentation and through lines have been good, it doesn’t feel like a waste of anyone’s time. However, some individual segments, like the wedding segment, were just a bit much and outstayed their welcome.

That said, the match should be great. We haven’t really got much of a chance to see what Miro can do with the chains off, and Kip Sabian is just begging to break through in a big way. On the other side, the Best Friends have already established themselves as wrestlers that can be relied upon for great matches. I don’t think this will be a particularly long match, but I’m expecting a bit of a frantic pace and a whole heap of melodrama.

Again, I think the result could go either way. Miro should really be getting some big wins, as he’s been AEW for a while now and hasn’t got any. On the other hand, it’s Orange Cassidy who is one of the most over stars at the moment; he’s beaten Chris Jericho in singles competition more than once, so should be really be losing here? There’s a lot of outside elements in play here, and since it’s a tag match, Cassidy doesn’t need to take the pin, so I’m going to go with Miro & Kip Sabian to find a way to sneak a win.

Casino Tag Team Royale
(Winner gets a match for the AEW World Tag Team Championships)

So a lot is going on here, and about a thousand different ways things could go.

First of all, this is a Tag Team Royal Rumble, so sign me the fuck up for that. I’m excited to see how the different dynamics play out here, the ring will get pretty crowded at some point, and that should lead to a lot of enjoyable chaos. On top of that, I think there are a lot of possibilities for the winners.

All three Dark Order teams are in with a shout. Their character shift since Brodie Lee’s tragic passing has been exactly what it needed to be; there was no way that faction would ever be booed following that event. They feel like they’ve come together in a beautiful way and their presence on-screen almost always brings a smile to my face. If I had to pick one of those teams to win, I’d go with Alex Reynolds & John Silver. Silver has absolutely been the group’s breakout star, and I’d love to see him get a shot at the titles.

Santana & Ortiz would be an interesting choice for the winners, too, as you could go different ways with it depending on who wins the tag title match. If the Bucks retain, it’s a good opportunity to continue The Inner Circle vs Young Bucks feud. Meanwhile, if Jericho & MJF win, then it will push the narrative of The Inner Circle slowly falling apart.

Outside of those teams, there are a bunch of other teams with an outside chance. PAC & Fenix, Butcher & Blade, SCU and Natural Nightmares are all in with a shout. Private Party has potential too, but given that they’re currently going after the Impact tag titles, I’d doubt they’ll win.

It’s a really tough choice picking a winner, as all of them would make for good stories. In the end, I’m going to go with my gut and say Alex Reynolds & John Silver, it just feels right, and it’d work regardless of who the champs are.

Cody Rhodes vs Scorpio Sky vs Penta El Zero Meido vs Lance Archer vs Max Caster vs ???
(Winner gets a match for the AEW TNT Championship)
(Ladder)

Once again, we’ve got ourselves a multi-man match where the winner is up in the air. Let’s run through the participants.

Max Caster – Caster feels like the kind of guy where, while I don’t have to say about him now, he could easily be a big deal a year from now. He’s got tons of potential and is a great upside as a wrestler; he’s just not quite at everyone else’s level in this match yet. Hopefully, this will be a great performance for him, and I’m glad AEW are giving guys like this opportunities, but he’s not winning.

Scorpio Sky – Sky is always in these ladder matches for title shots, and every time I say he’s got an outside chance and every time, he doesn’t even get close. Every couple of months, Sky has a fantastic match with one of the more prominent names and we all rave about how he’s a future star of the company, but then nothing ever comes of it. Hopefully, one day that’ll change, but I don’t think it’s happening on Sunday.

Penta El Zero Meido – Another wrestler who always feels like they’re in these ladder matches but never actually wins any. I don’t really know what to say, he may win, but I doubt it. The Lucha Bros feel like they’ve got a vague direction right now, but I’m hoping it’ll form into something more clear soon, but I doubt that direction will be the TNT title.

Lance Archer – If the champ was anyone other than Darby Allin, I’d probably be picking Lance. I didn’t expect Archer to work as a face so well, but damn, it’s so easy to cheer for this guy. He taps into that face-monster archetype really well, and AEW could have a fantastic champion on their hands in a year or so if they build this right. However, I don’t think he’s going to win. While I’m sure a match between Allin & Archer would be great, it doesn’t make sense for them to face each other right now.

As much as I don’t really care about size in wrestling, Archer should realistically destroy Allin in a match, and that’s just not going to happen. If Archer squashes Allin, then it throws all Allin’s build down the drain, and if Allin managed to beat him, it would be a huge blotch on Archer’s record. No-one would gain anything from it, so they shouldn’t do it.

Cody Rhodes – This just feels like the best pick. Given how their previous match ended, it’s felt likely that a rematch would be on the cards; it just so happened that both men go sidetracked by other ventures before it could happen. I wouldn’t call it a sure-fire thing though, Cody’s tied up with Shaq as well right now, so that could always rear its head here and mess with Cody’s plans. It just seems to me that, out of all the announced participants, Cody is the only one that makes sense.

??? – What about the unannounced participant, though? Well, I honestly have no idea. I’d say the money is on it being someone from Impact, but I really couldn’t say who.

Either way, I’m going to go with the safe bet and say Cody Rhodes will win the title shot.

Hangman Page vs Matt Hardy
(Winner gets the loser’s 2021 Q1 earnings)

This is a weirdly interesting story and one that I think only works because of Page’s current trajectory. The whole downward spiral he’s on is the kind of story that’s going to have an incredible payoff when Page eventually beats Omega for the world title, but in the meantime, you’ve got to find ways to keep it going.

This story has been a brilliant way to keep it going. The story of him getting involved with The Dark Order but refusing to officially join them was unique and endearing for the characters on all sides, and this story with Matt is the perfect highlight of Page’s current character flaws. To be clear, I mean the kind of flaws intended by the narrative, mainly Page’s drinking, as it’s what got him into this situation in the first place. The stipulation of the winner lifting the loser’s earnings is brilliant for this story, even if we do know it’s not real. There’s this real sense that if Page loses this, he might have nothing left to keep him going and bottom out, and that’s some proper narrative stakes.

As for match quality, I’m sure it’ll be great. Page is perhaps my favourite wrestler in AEW right now regarding his ability in the ring, and Matt Hardy has proved that he’s not slowing down any time soon. I’m expecting a little bit of shenanigans from Private Party and maybe The Dark Order, but I doubt it’ll have too much bearing on the match.

When you look at who should win, it really depends where you want Page’s narrative next. Do you want him to continue his downward spiral? Or do you want this to be the point where he starts to bring him back from the brink? Personally, I would continue the downward spiral and really push the character to rock bottom. However, I don’t think that’s what AEW is going to do. With the ranking system, I’d imagine that Page isn’t going to be losing many matches this year for his eventually world title match. So I’m going with Hangman Page to win this one.

Team Taz vs Darby Allin & Sting
(Street Fight)

This story’s been a bit of a wild ride, that’s for sure. Sting’s appearance in AEW was one of those things that was shocking but inevitable. I had my doubts as to whether he’d ever wrestle (and, to be honest, I still have my doubts about how much he can go), but AEW wasted no time getting him in the ring. Allin has been a big beneficiary of this feud, which is good because I doubt it will do Team Taz many favours. While Allin hasn’t been defending his title so much because of this feud, his association with Sting (and inevitable victory) will raise his stock like a strong title defence never could.

I’m not entirely sure what to expect from this match. The street fight stipulation was definitely a good choice. It’ll allow Allin to perform at his self-destructive peak, allow Team Taz to get really vicious in their attacks and will create a naturally slower pace, so Sting doesn’t look exposed. Not to disrespect Sting, of course, but it’s been over 6 years since he last wrestled, and during that last match, he quite literally almost died in the ring, so I think I can be forgiven for worrying over how well he’ll be able to wrestle in this match.

Darby Allin & Sting are winning this. This match is by far the one I’m most confident about, Allin is a new champion who needs some wins under his belt, and this is Sting’s first match in AEW and first match in 6 years; there’s no way that team is losing. It’s a bit of a shame for Team Taz, but they can bounce back from it if that’s what AEW want for them.

The Young Bucks(c) vs The Inner Circle
(AEW World Tag Team Championships)

The Inner Circle and their story has been fantastic ever since AEW began. After Jericho lost his title, it really felt like the group’s days were numbered, but they managed to turn it around and keep feeling fresh with their endeavours. Now we’re in 2021, and yet again, they’ve changed up their makeup, and we’re looking at yet another story in the group. MJF joining was perfect, and the writing surrounding this story has been incredibly compelling. The knock-on effect of MJF’s presence and Jericho’s unwillingness to bend for the good of the group has been slowly creeping in week by week, and the consequences are on the horizon.

In regards to what they’ve been doing with The Young Bucks, I’ve liked that too. It’s not been the most complex of stories thanks to what’s going on within The Inner Circle, but it’s had the impact it needed to. On top of that, the Bucks and the Inner Circle are so diametrically opposed characters right now that it just kinda works regardless. Plus, there’s the hype of the actual match. All four men are bloody brilliant wrestlers, and if the Buck’s previous tag title matches are anything to go by, there will be a properly engaging story told between the dynamics of each team.

I went back and forth on this one a few times, but now I’m writing it out, I actually feel fairly confident in picking The Young Bucks to retain. That idea of the Bucks being the most solid of teams while Jericho & MJF are two bastards that are just one bad day away from turning on each other will come in to play, and The Inner Circle just won’t be able to hang with the best. Not to mention, it finally gives Jericho a reason to doubt MJF, and the cracks in The Inner Circle can start to get bigger.

Hikaru Shida(c) vs Ryo Mizunami
(AEW Women’s World Championship)

Inarguably my biggest criticism of AEW over its small lifespan so far has been the abysmal treatment of the women’s division. This year, they’ve committed themselves to building the division up to the prominence it should have, and while there’s still a long way to go to get to where it should be, the trajectory is finally pointing upwards. This tournament has done a great job of highlighting just about every competitor who’s worth taking note of in AEW’s coming weeks and, now they’re going to have more open access to their Joshi stars again, we should start to see a much greater variety in terms of feuds and title contenders.

Regarding Ryo Mizunami, it took me a little while to come around to her, but with each match in this tournament, I’ve enjoyed her work more and more, and I’m really excited to see what she & Shida can do. Shida has always worked really well against larger competitors, and Mizunami is one of the best ‘big women’ I’ve seen in wrestling in a while.

I’m struggling to pick a winner, though. Logic says that Shida should retain. Ryo is still a new star to the AEW fanbase, and putting the title on her straight away might put people off. However, this women’s tournament has felt like a big restart of the whole division, and what better way to make that statement of starting fresh than giving us a brand new champion? It’s a tough call, especially because I’m a huge fan of Shida, but I’m going to take the risky option and predict Ryo Mizunami to take the title.

Kenny Omega(c) vs Jon Moxley
(AEW World Championship)
(Exploding Barbed Wire Deathmatch)

Kenny Omega’s run as AEW champion has been quite a wild ride so far. Kicking things off with the partnership between AEW & Impact was one hell of a bold move, but one that absolutely worked. It built the hype surrounding this new champion, and it made me care about Impact for the first time since The Final Deletion. Seeing Kenny as a heel feels out of place, which is weird considering that’s what he was for the majority of his time in New Japan, but I’m liking it. The dude’s clearly been given a lot of creative freedom with how he operates, and he’s producing a lot of entertaining TV because of it.

An Exploding Barbed Wire Deathmatch, though…I really don’t know how to feel. I’ve never really watched deathmatch wrestling, nor have I ever wanted to. I don’t consider myself to be all that squeamish, but some of the clips I’ve seen of deathmatch wrestling are just…a lot to look at. This isn’t going to be a watered-down version of it either, Moxley made his name in this style of wrestling, and Kenny is never one to be 1-uped, so you know he’s going to go all the way with it. That said, I did enjoy their unsanctioned match from 2019, which most people said was ‘too much’, so maybe I’ve got more of a stomach for it than I realised. As I said, I just don’t know whether or not I’m going to enjoy this, so I’m going to go in with an open mind and see how it hits me.

The one thing I am sure about, though, is that Kenny Omega is winning. Moxley was an amazing champion, and between AEW & NJPW, he’s one of the biggest stars in all of wrestling right now, but his time with that title is done. It’s time for us to see him do new and exciting things in AEW outside of the title. Similarly, Kenny’s reign is just beginning. It’s gone really well so far, and it has an extremely promising future, so he’s definitely holding onto it for a while.

And there you have it! Thank you very much for taking the time to read this post. Please, let me know what you think will happen on Sunday, either in the comments below or on Twitter @SStyleSmark. Finally, make sure you come back here this time on Monday, where I’ll be publishing my review of the show!